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A decade following the UK stumbled into a hasty public vote that divided the nation and triggered turmoil, a caution comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.

Policymakers and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the same might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering convulsions for which nobody is equipped.

That conveys the caution from two prominent commentators from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.

Administrative Institutions Ill-Equipped

The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a potentially tense and monumental referendum.

"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can build support very quickly," O’Toole stated. "It is my view that the political architecture of our region remains highly fragile."

New Title Aims to Stir Debate

The pair have analysed the political, financial and societal arguments for any governmental shift in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They hope to stir debate on the issue with a series of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster early next month.

"What troubles everybody, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.

"We must avoid a national vote on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose results have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily divided society where people who have lost are unable to accept defeat and the people who have won are uncertain precisely what it is that they have achieved."

Governmental Mandate

Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would support.

Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim such a time is looming, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists play down the prospect, making it uncertain whether or when there will be a national vote.

Insufficient Serious Debate

Partisan language for and against unity has obscured the shortage of serious debate, noted McBride.

"Many are for or against the notion but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has occurred in scholarly circles but hardly any elected officials or campaigners want to engage with even the fundamentals. As an example, what sort of state should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"

Publication's Method

In the book, none of the commentators supports unification or the status quo. Both composes two essays that strive for objectivity in laying out the rationale for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, assembling financial and societal statistics, previous instances and constitutional models.

Arguments cover flags and symbols, taxes, medical care, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of unionist unrest. The aim is to inform and stimulate dialogue.

"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there hasn't quite been a debate," stated O’Toole. "Debate implies an acceptance of the notion that there may exist valid points on each side."

Dual Referendums

A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate claim they prefer unity but refuse greater financial contributions or adopting a different emblem to reflect pro-UK communities' British culture.

"Authorities in Dublin must work out what the proposal from Irish nationalism is beyond just stating: 'We want a united Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked O’Toole.

Possibility of Public Vote

McBride thinks a national vote in his lifetime is probable and that it could happen unexpectedly. "You could have just a mad or a bad or a incompetent secretary of state who declares: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"

Both nationalists and unionists have plausible, legitimate arguments, he stated. "Somebody will win here and somebody will eventually not succeed but each side has possesses valuable insights to acquire from the opposing viewpoints."

Request for More Extensive Dialogue

Westminster should participate in the dialogue, stated O’Toole. "This is about your state. It is a British issue just as much as it is an Irish matter."