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Elections are now in progress for parliamentary elections in Holland, with recent surveys indicating that the anti-immigration firebrand Geert Wilders and his PVV party may repeat their emerge victorious, although experts believe PVV is unlikely of joining the next government.

Polling Trends and Political Landscape

Wilders' party, which previously achieved a shock top result and established a four-party all-conservative government that lasted barely a year, is now marginally ahead in the polls and is forecast to secure between 24 to 28 seats in the 150-member parliament.

Nevertheless, PVV's popularity has declined since 2023, when it won 37 parliamentary seats. Every significant political group have stated they will not forming a government with the PVV leader, who precipitated the collapse of the previous government in June amid a dispute concerning his radical anti-refugee plans.

Major Parties and Forecasts

Following a election period focused on topics such as immigration, medical expenses, and the country's acute housing shortage, the left-leaning Green Left/Labour party alliance, headed by former European commissioner Frans Timmermans, is running a near second, projected to win between 22 to 26 seats.

Also forecast to do well is the liberal-progressive D66, predicted to increase its seat count nearly fivefold to 21-25 seats, while the centre-right CDA is expected to significantly increase its seat tally to between 18 to 22.

Members of the previous government – which included the PVV, VVD, populist Farmer-Citizen Movement (BBB), and centrist New Social Contract (NSC) – are all projected to lose seats, with several facing heavy declines.

Voting Process and Political Division

Under the Netherlands' electoral system, securing just 0.67% of the national vote yields a party one MP. Among the two dozen political groups contesting the election – including parties for the over-50s, youth parties, for animals, for a universal basic income, and for sport – up to 16 could enter the legislature.

This significant fragmentation ensures that no single party is ever likely to secure a majority, and the Netherlands has been governed by coalitions – typically composed of four parties in the last few administrations – for over 100 years.

Government Formation

Wilders has stated that "democracy will be dead" in the country if the his party ends up as the biggest group yet is shut out of government. But, critics and analysts say that winning the most seats does not assure a role in the coalition and that any coalition with a parliamentary majority is a democratic outcome.

Although the final outcome is hard to predict and government negotiations could take months, political observers indicate that after the most radical administration in recent memory, the next Dutch cabinet is expected to be a inclusive coalition led by either the centre-left or moderate right.

Election Day Details

Voting locations, such as those in the Madurodam model village in the capital and the Anne Frank museum in the capital city, began operations at 7.30am (6.30am GMT) and will conclude at 9pm. A usually accurate exit poll is expected soon after the polls close.

After the vote, an informateur will test potential governing alliances that could command a majority in parliament. Prospective coalition members will then negotiate an agreement for the coming term and must undergo a confidence vote in parliament before assuming power.